Assessment of heat stress and cloudiness probabilities in post-flowering of spring wheat and canola in the Southern Cone of South America

Episodes of heat stress constrain crop production and will be aggravated in the near future according to short medium-term climate scenarios. Global increase cloudiness has also been observed, decreasing incident solar radiation. This work was aimed quantify probability occurrence cloudiness, alone or combined, during typical post-flowering period wheat canola Southern Cone South America. Extended series (last 3–5 decades with daily register) 33 conventional weather stations from Argentina, Brazil, Chile Uruguay (23 40°S) were analysed considering September December. Two different events determined: (i) maximum temperature above 30 °C (T > °C) (ii) 5 historical average that day + °C). A event defined our as radiation 50% lower than (R50%). The T increased its throughout phase, By contrast, risk decreased slightly, just like for R50%, higher latitude, R50%. plus R50% combined stresses reached greater cumulated probabilities post-flowering, compared being 42% vs 15% northernmost locations, 26% vs. 19% central (between 31 35°S) 28% 1% southernmost respectively. curvilinear relationship emerged between monthly number days per month. In summary, most frequent thermal canola. Both had a noticeable occurrence, but highest. Evidence recent past current individually, combination temperate crops, serves baseline scenarios main cropped areas